AMHERST, N.Y. - Special congressional elections tend to be sleepyaffairs, campaigns so condensed and out of step with the normalpolitical calendar that they're often missed. But they can bemirrors of the national moment, too, and that's what's happening inthe suburbs of Buffalo and Rochester, where a race to fill a vacantU.S. House seat has turned into a referendum on the Republican planto overhaul Medicare.
Sensing an unexpected opportunity for a Democratic rebound fromlast year's losses, Sen. Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.) flew hereSunday morning and moved from table to table at the Family TreeRestaurant, hovering over eggs, sausage links and pancakes todeliver a simple message.
"If you care about Medicare and want to keep Medicare as it is,she's your person," Schumer, the Democrats' message man inWashington, said as he introduced diners to Democrat Kathy Hochul."Her opponent wants to just dismantle it."
At the next table: "If you're gonna have Medicare one of thesedays, she's fighting to keep it."
And the next: "Her opponent will change it so you wouldn't evenrecognize it."
This, Democrats believe, is how Hochul just might do what seemedunthinkable a few weeks ago: win in one of the nation's moreinhospitable places for Democrats.
This is also the formula Democrats plan to use next year, whenRepublicans will face voters for the first time after backing a planby House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) that wouldturn Medicare into a private voucher system.
Changing Medicare, the centerpiece of Ryan's plan, is deeplyunpopular across the country, according to public polls. Thebacklash to it in this economically struggling district, whereregistered voters are older than the national average, has turned anunusual three-way race into a dead heat.
Thus, what happens here ahead of the May 24 election will set theterms for both parties' campaign playbooks heading into the 2012battle for control of the House and Senate.
Aware of the stakes, the national parties have poured money intothe race, outside groups are flooding local airwaves, and Democraticand Republican leaders are taking an active role.
Ryan recently sent a plea to his supporters to raise money forAssemblywoman Jane L. Corwin, the Republican candidate. HouseSpeaker John A. Boehner (R-Ohio) hosted a fundraiser for Corwinhere. And House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi (Calif.) appeared ata Hochul fundraiser in Manhattan on Friday night.
Corwin said that she would have voted for Ryan's budget and thatMedicare needs to fundamentally change if it is to remain solvent.
"If you don't do this, Medicare is going to go bankrupt by 2024,"Corwin said in an interview. "If we ignore it like Kathy Hochulwants to do, it'll run out of money. . . . Actually, she's the onewho's advocating for eliminating Medicare because she's saying don'tdo anything."
Diane Few, 56, a Republican, said she is worried about any cutsto Medicare benefits but would vote for Corwin. "If you just listento the newscasts, she's going to delete Medicare," Few said. "But Itrust her. I sure hope it's not true because I'm getting up there."
Hochul, the Erie County clerk, said overhauling Medicare is "aline in the sand" that she would not cross. Instead, Hochul wants toeliminate corporate tax loopholes and raise taxes on income of morethan $500,000.
"That resonates with people struggling in this district and thesmall businesses in Main Street who don't think they're getting afair shake," Hochul said in an interview.
The third candidate, tea-party-backed independent Jack Davis,said he would have voted against Ryan's budget because he wanteddeeper spending cuts and does not support overhauling Medicare.
Corwin had been the heavy favorite to win the seat left vacant byRep. Chris Lee (R), who abruptly resigned in February when ashirtless photo that he took of himself and e-mailed to a romanticinterest on Craigslist surfaced on the Internet.
But Corwin has been hamstrung by Davis, another multimillionaireself-funder who appears to be siphoning off Republican votes. A lateApril poll by Siena College showed Corwin leading with 36 percent,followed by Hochul at 31 percent and Davis at 23 percent. One weeklater, a survey commissioned by the liberal Web site Daily Kosshowed Hochul leading Corwin by four points.
That Hochul is viable is surprising. In 2010, tea-party-backedRepublican Carl Paladino carried this district with 61 percent ofthe vote despite losing the governor's race in a landslide.
An intramural fight between the Corwin and Davis campaigns hasdevolved into a sideshow fit for the downstate tabloids.
On Wednesday, Corwin's chief of staff, Michael Mallia, went to aDavis event featuring veterans and badgered Davis, a 78-year-oldMarine Corps veteran. Davis said the aide called him a "coward" and,with his camera rolling, Davis shoved the camera and threatened topunch Mallia.
Corwin said she neither authorized the act nor disciplinedMallia; she said he was acting on his personal time.
Asked in an interview what he thinks of Corwin, Davis said: "At afundraiser, she's very smiley, quite beautiful and very social. Butas a congressman, she will not be fighting for the working men andwomen of this district."
Davis's campaign manager, Curtis Ellis, was more blunt. "She's aBarbie doll," Ellis said in an interview. "She's a talking-pointvessel. They just fill her up with words and she spits them out."
As if the race needed more of the bizarre, Donald Trump weighedin last week. He preemptively blamed any Corwin loss here on theRyan proposal. "She's having a hard time defending that wholesituation with Medicare," Trump told reporters in New Hampshire."The Democrats, you talk about demagogue, are doing a number on thatplan unlike anything I've ever seen."
On Saturday morning, Hochul visited a 19th-century meetinghousein the quaint village of Williamsville to remind a few dozen femalesupporters what's at stake in this election for Medicare.
Janice Dunne, 73, a Democrat sitting in the front bench, said sheremembered before Medicare became the issue in this election. It wasshortly after the Ryan budget passed, and Hochul was holding a smallfundraiser.
"I said, 'Kathy, you've got to talk about this Ryan plan,' "Dunne said. "And Kathy said, 'Janice, the commercial's coming outtomorrow.' "
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