Friday, March 2, 2012

HIGH-TECH SHAKE-UP MARKET FORCES FUEL VOLATILITY OF IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MAINSTAY

In three years Egghead Software's work force has shriveledfrom a 550-employee heavyweight into a leased office with 37 peopleworking in Spokane.

In July, Key Tronic Corp. laid off 200 people and moved theirjobs to Mexico.

A week after Key Tronic's announcement, Itron Inc. trimmed100 jobs.

Johnson Matthey Electronics has announced it will lay off 100to 200 people within six weeks. Then again, maybe they won't.

Intense market pressures, and the persistent drive to cutcosts to keep companies competitive have played a part in each ofthose downsizing decisions.

While these have been individual corporate actions, theystill have a cumulative effect on employment in Spokane, but areaobservers agree that there's not much that can be done about it.

The electronics, computers and technology industries havealways been volatile. Predicting how markets will shift is trickyat best.

For example, many personal computers have sold at around$2,000 and up for years, but for the last several months, there'sbeen a huge consumer shift to PCs costing $1,000 or less. Whilethis shift has been expected by computer companies for years,predicting when it would happen was difficult.

Now that the shift is actually here, the consequences arefelt by Johnson Matthey in Cheney. Workers there have been makingthermal cooling components for high-end computer chips since theformer Key Tronic plant reopened in November. But now that peoplearen't buying as many expensive PCs, some Johnson Matthey workerscould be laid off.

Although, as one Johnson Matthey official put it, the plannedlayoff in October might not be necessary if orders improve. BrentBollong, general manager of Johnson Matthey's Cheney facility, saidthat there could be a turnaround even during the 60-day,legally-required layoff notice.

That's why the company didn't specify an exact number ofworkers who will be laid off.

"Sixty days is a long time in this business," Bollong saidwhen the layoff notice was given. "Things could change. That's whywe can't really say."

Several Johnson Matthey workers shrugged off the layoff issuelast week, as they went to their cars in a jammed parking lot.Production is running at full capacity, and employees say thepending layoff rarely is discussed.

"It's kind of like agriculture," said Sam Hale, a temporaryworker for Johnson Matthey in Cheney. "There's always the elementof hot and cold."

Although employees said anxiety always surrounds possiblelayoffs, some added they've grown to expect it.

"You've got to expect it in this industry, and you've got tobe prepared for it," said Melinda Rudd, a Johnson Mattheyproduction worker from Medical Lake.

Key Tronic has faced similar pressures. Bowing to pricepressures from competitors, the company moved more jobs to itsMexican plants to cut labor costs.

Egghead radically reinvented itself eight months ago into acompany selling exclusively on the Internet, and just didn't needthe extra people, especially in retail stores.

So those who work in the high-technology sector in Spokanethis summer received some painful reminders about the level ofvolatility and employment which is very sensitive to quick marketswings.

"It's like oil wells and diamond mines," said Bernard Daines,president and CEO of Packet Engines, a growing computer networkingcompany in the Spokane Valley. "There's big risk and big reward,and the rewards keep people coming back."

The risk-and-reward scenario has a variety of impacts onworkers' lives.

Sundara Ganesh, an application specific integrated circuitengineer at Packet Engines, said he wouldn't purchase a home soonafter landing a good technology job because it's hard to know ifthat income will be there next month, much less years from now.

Although Ganesh said he feels confident in Packet Engines'growth and innovation keeping it on edge, he's lived here 18 monthswith no plans of selling his Bay Area home.

And as confident as Daines is in his company, he wouldn'targue with that decision.

"If you pick one company and think it's your nanny the restof your life, you're making a mistake," Daines said.

Fickle as the electronics and technology industries cansometimes be, it's apparent that when one door closes, others open.

A sampling of employment totals from eight major Spokanetechnology-based employers shows relatively little overall change.The group employed more than 4,200 people in mid-1996, and twoyears later, those same companies now employ at least 4,500.

That explains how major job losses at Key Tronic and Eggheadhave been counterbalanced by growth at Johnson Matthey, SoftwareSpectrum and Packet Engines, among others.

The only pattern which emerges is that market forces havealways driven the decisions, but now the markets are increasinglyunpredictable. The May layoff of 650 Intel employees at a new plantsouth of Tacoma is just one example that Spokane is not alone inbeing victimized by volatility.

Hewlett Packard recently announced it would cut the pay of2,000 managers worldwide by 5 percent for the next three months tohelp weather the Asian fiscal storm.

Just as often, though, layoffs are seen as a way to stayafloat anywhere.

"These are transitions that you see coast to coast, not justhere," said Mark Turner, president of the Spokane Area EconomicDevelopment Council. "But if it's going to happen, now's a goodtime, with unemployment being low, because there are otheropportunities available."

Ironically, that may be part of the problem. Engineeringschools are seeing declining enrollments nationwide, creating avacuum for highly skilled tech workers.

Whether some people avoid technology careers because ofvolatility is uncertain, but Daines said wellrounded technologyworkers should have no problem transporting their skills fromcompany to company.

The ability to learn new skills quickly is what catches theeyes of technology companies now, he said. It's also the bestsafeguard to remaining employable when the hatchet drops, he said.

"People have to increase their value by being hard-working,innovative and educated," Daines said. "If they get in a rut andfocus on something else, that can be a problem."

Julie Prafke, owner of Humanix temporary services, said tempworkers are given the same advice when entering the technologyindustry. Humanix tells its workers to do their best at learningskills on the job that they can apply anywhere if they have to, shesaid.

"They know they have more security with us than with someplaces," Prafke said. "We have a lot of people that take thatsecure job, then a year later when they're downsized, they're backhere.

She adds: "People need to realize that there's no such thingas a 30-year tenure at a company anymore. You're lucky to get 30months."

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